Predicting the Final 53 – Post OTAs
Photo credit: Garret Campbell, Redskins.com
With only a month and a half left until the start of the 2016 Training Camp, the competition for a place on the final roster is intense across both sides of the ball. Although it’s only been in what Head Coach Jay Gruden refers to as “shorts and helmets”, the Redskins have been running through practice sessions at OTAs that enables us to get a better understanding of the ever-fluid puzzle that is the Redskins roster composition.
There are multiple factors and story lines at play throughout this offseason/preseason, as players change positions and as first and second year players continue their development, veterans and journeymen have to work harder to hold on to their positions with the first and second units.
Redskins GM Scot McCloughan once said that the sign of a good team is that they have too many good players to keep, and that is starting to look like what McCloughan, Gruden, and the rest of the football personnel team will have to deal with when it comes time to cut the roster down to fifty three players.
With that in mind, here is our latest attempt at walking in their shoes and putting together the Redskins roster for the 2016 regular season.
Click the picture to see it full size
Offensive Line
One of the more stable units in terms of change carrying over from the 2015 season, the only potential impacts here hinge on the health of Left Guard Shawn Lauvao. During the first weeks last year, Lauvao was a significantly improved player and a big reason for the early success of the ground game. After he went down injured, his absence became apparent as the level of play dropped off. If he’s truly recovered from injury (which included multiple offseason surgeries) and can recapture the good form he displayed last year, Lauvao will step back in as the starter at Left Guard.
If he can’t, Spencer Long will get the job. Long entered the 2015 season as a backup, but ended up starting 13 games due to injuries, and although he wasn’t terrible, he demonstrated that he has further improvement if he is to supplant Lauvao as the starter on form alone.
No surprises regarding the other starters across the line, with Trent Williams, Kory Lichtensteiger, Brandon Scherff and Morgan Moses returning to their roles. Ty Nsekhe, Arie Kouandjio, and Josh LeRibeus will round out the second unit.
Tight Ends
Fresh off of his new contract and after his peers voted him into the 2016 “NFL Top 100” at number 77 overall, Jordan Reed enters the 2016 season as an undeniable star. Whilst he still has his issues as a blocker, giving away 12 accepted penalties alone in 2015, Reed is a force to be reckoned with on Offense, and punishes teams like few others in the league can.
Joining Reed will be Redskins veteran Niles Paul, as well as Vernon Davis who joined the team via free agency. Together, this trio represents a formidable combination, and provides Offensive Coordinator Sean McVay with enormous versatility in terms of the packages he can implement in to the game plan. Don’t underestimate Paul’s contributions on Special Teams either.
Running Backs
Some are still speculating that the Redskins may sign a free agent Running Back closer to camp (a player along the lines of Arian Foster, for example). We’re not ruling out that possibility, but we believe that it’s more unlikely than likely given what we know about the way McCloughan builds his teams.
Matt Jones burst on to the scene last year and turned plenty of heads, but demonstrated struggles with ball security as the season went on. To his credit, Jones hasn’t shied away from this issue, and recently spoke to Redskins.com and gave the following insight into the work he’s putting in to correct it:
“I actually changed everything: the grip, the positioning, how tight I hold it. I’ve been working on my curls in the weight room to get that right. Really everything I’ve worked on has been different. We are doing a lot of stuff like how I hold the ball, different points where I can hold it. Now, no one can take it and I feel very confident. Opposed to last season, I can definitely say that now. I just felt like I was holding the ball wrong, all loose. But now I am buckling down on it.”
Chris Thompson has been with the team since 2013, and although he hasn’t found a way to consistently contribute yet, he showed enough last year to earn his spot on the roster once again this season as a third-down back and potential factor in the passing game.
With the Redskins not carrying a Full Back this year, a third Running Back is practically guaranteed, and 2016 rookie Keith Marshall seems the most likely to win that spot. Undrafted Free Agent Rob Kelley has also been turning heads in OTAs, but once the pads go on in June, July and August, Keith Marshall is likely to have the advantage.
In our previous edition of this article, we had Josh Doctson starting in the place of Pierre Garcon, and although that may still eventuate, we’ve gone back to DeSean Jackson and Garcon as the starting ‘outside’ Wide Outs, with Jamison Crowder as the starting Slot Receiver.
Combined with Jordan Reed, the receiving weapons that the Redskins have on offense appear to be a position of absolute strength for this roster. So much so, that NFL Network’s Charley Casserly crowned them the “best 4 receiver combo” in the NFL:
When #Redskins go to 3 WR's, If Dotson is on field with Jackson, Garcon & TE Reed. They will have best 4 receiver combo in NFL @nflnetwork
— Charley Casserly (@CharleyCasserly) May 16, 2016
Carrying six receivers on the roster again this season means that Ryan Grant and Rashad Ross will once again make the team, and be expected to contribute on special teams.
Quarterbacks
The only question that remains about Kirk Cousins this season is whether or not he’ll be playing under the franchise tag, or if the team can get him on to a long-term contract before the July 15 deadline.
Colt McCoy knows this offense well and should Cousins go down, McCoy can step up and move the chains reliably. He’s a strong backup to have in a league so bereft of quality passers.
With apologies to the small but passionate #FreeNate crowd on Twitter, Nate Sudfeld will be on the Practice Squad this year (unless he gets stolen by another team).
Defensive Line
The departures of Jason Hatcher and Terrance Knighton have necessitated significant change to the interior of the Redskins front seven on defense, and as such Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry expects his starters to be versatile and capable of playing at different spots across the line. Therefore it’s difficult to accurately project what the final Defensive Line roster will look like on paper, because whilst someone like Chris Baker might be listed at ‘Defensive Tackle’, he may spend just as much time playing more of a ‘Defensive End’ role.
Baker, Ricky Jean-Francois and Stephen Paea will be the starting interior Defensive Lineman one way or another though, as their talent and experience gives them the edge over players like Trent Murphy who is transitioning from life as an edge rusher to more of a one-technique player.
Rookie Matt Ioannidis has been asked to bulk up so he can play more of a zero-technique role over the center, and looks to be well on his way to earning a spot on the roster to fill that role.
As the longest tenured Redskin, Kedric Golston once again makes the final roster.
Outside Linebackers
The combination of Ryan Kerrigan, Junior Galette and Preston Smith is a formidable one, indeed. Although the base 3-4 roster depicted here shows Preston Smith as the backup, do not be surprised to see Joe Barry implement schemes that has all three of these pass rushers sharing the field at the same time together.
We are predicting that the Redskins will carry a total of four pure OLBs on the roster, and given that the first three are locked in without a doubt, Houston Bates wins himself a spot on the team with the fourth spot in reward for his strong contributions last season.
Inside Linebackers
Will Compton and Mason Foster return as the starters after finishing the 2015 season in those positions. Although analytics painted a picture that suggested the Compton/Foster duo struggled greatly, Joe Barry and his defensive coaches like what they bring to the team and believe that continued playing time will lead to growth and improvement.
Speaking of Coach Barry and what he likes, it’s clear that he shares the excitement of fans when it comes to rookie Su’a Cravens:
“Right now kind of just as a starting point, he’s [Cravens] playing our weakside linebacker – which we call ‘Mo’ – in base and then he’s playing our weakside linebacker in nickel, which we call the dime linebacker.
He’s a special one in the sense that he’s got God-given football awareness and instincts. He’s got natural stuff. Plus, he’s a great athlete, he’s tough, he can run, he can tackle, he can hit, he can blitz, he can play coverage. So, really, I think down the road moving forward, I think the sky is the limit on what we can do with him.”
In our previous version of our predicted final roster, Perry Riley Jr didn’t make the cut, which was partly due to what we perceived as salary cap pressures. The release of Andre Roberts as well as some other moves that remain to be made lead us to believe that Riley will in fact find his way on to the team once again this year, and he provides stability and a veteran presence as a backup.
Rookie Steven Daniels will be expected to be a strong contributor on Special Teams this year, which will be enough to see him clinch the 5th and final Inside Linebacker roster spot.
Cornerbacks
Perhaps the most radically different looking unit on the roster, the Cornerbacks appear to be an absolute position of strength for the Redskins this season. The blockbuster signing of Josh Norman instantly transformed the Redskins secondary, and Bashaud Breeland continues to develop into a star in his own right.
The drafting of Kendall Fuller was heralded as a stellar piece of recruiting, as he was widely considered a first round talent who fell in the draft due to his knee injury he suffered in 2015. That surgery was performed by Redskins team doctor James Andrews, and having recently joined the team in training drills, all signs point to Fuller being healthy and ready to go by camp. Fuller can step right in and work as the Nickel/Slot corner, and if he does so is likely to see some balls thrown his direction with opposing Quarterbacks likely wanting to stay away from the Norman/Breeland combination.
Quinton Dunbar was a revelation last year as a late convert from Wide Receiver to Cornerback, and he’s well and truly earned his spot on the team. Joining him as the fifth and final Cornerback listed on the roster is Greg Toler, who joined the team as a free agent from the Colts this year and can contribute.
Yes, we only have the Redskins carrying five dedicated Corners on this roster. For an explanation of why that is, we need to look at the Safeties.
Safeties
Based on the way Defensive Backs Coach Perry Fewell has been deploying his troops during OTAs, the starting Safety tandem is going to be DeAngelo Hall at Free Safety and David Bruton at Strong Safety.
In previous years, it has been more common for the Redskins to carry six Corner Backs and four Safeties on the final roster, yet as we noted above, this season we are projecting that to change. With the injury cloud over Kyshoen Jarrett and the transition from Cornerback to Safety that both Will Blackmon and Deshazor Everett have made, it makes sense to carry both those players over someone like Cornerback Dashaun Phillips. Both Blackmon and Everett have the versatility that they can step up and play multiple positions when asked, and this gives them a significant advantage. Furthermore, Everett demonstrated big-play ability as a Special Teams gunner last year which impressed the coaches.
Who misses the cut?
Kyshoen Jarrett
Unfortunately for both team and player, it seems inevitable that Jarrett is going to find himself on the Injured Reserved list this year.
Derek Carrier and Logan Paulsen
When the Redskins signed Vernon Davis, the battle for a spot on the final roster got very tough for these two journeymen.
Austin Reiter
The 2016 rookie Center once again fails to make the roster, with too many talented and versatile players ahead of him on the depth chart.
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Ziggy Hood
The Defensive End signed a low money one-year contract with the Redskins back in February, but competition for spots is enormous this year, and the numbers don’t add up favorably for Hood.
Martrell Spaight and Adam Hayward
The ability for rookie Steven Daniels to contribute as a young dynamic force on Special Teams is what will be the difference over Spaight and Hayward making the team.
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