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Predicting the Final 53 – Post Draft Edition

By Chad Ryan

Posted on April 30, 2016

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Now that the 2016 NFL draft has concluded and the dust has settled, we’re beginning to get a clearer picture of what the Washington Redskins roster will look like once the season begins.

All throughout the preseason period in the lead up to week one, Redskins Capital Connection will be bringing you updated predictions for what the roster will look like. Whilst it is certainly true that the addition of Undrafted Free Agents, as well as any preseason injuries or surprise cuts, will necessitate changes to the final 53 man Redskins roster, Head Coach Jay Gruden’s comments after the draft concluded today seemed to indicate that the front office feels good about the overall state of the Redskins roster.

With that in mind, here is our prediction for the final 53 man roster based on current observations.

NOTE: The defensive side of this roster is presented as a base 3-4, but we fully acknowledge the wide variety of different schemes and packages that Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry utilizes. Specifically listed positions are done so as an example only, and flexibility is expected. More on that is explained below.

 

Click the depth chart picture to see full size

Offensive Line

Somewhat surprisingly, the Redskins didn’t draft a single Offensive Linemen in the 2016 draft, meaning that they have to feel at least somewhat positively about the current state of their talent. Obviously Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff and Morgan Moses appear to be locked in as the starters at their respective positions, but there were many who assumed that Scot McCloughan would select a Center given the instability at that position last year. Therefore we have Kory Licthensteiger as the presumed starter over the ball once again.

Before he was injured in early 2015, Shawn Lauvao was playing excellently at the Left Guard position, and steps right back in to that spot in this prediction. Ty Nsekhe, who stepped up and got more playing time in 2015 than anyone could have predicted, earns himself the first backup Tackle spot.

Wide Receivers

Investing the first round draft pick into Josh Doctson signaled a strong desire to shift the dynamic on offense and give Kirk Cousins something he hasn’t had previously; a genuine redzone threat. Many would argue that Jordan Reed has been that threat, and that’s a fair point considering the elite talent that Reed possesses, but Doctson is something else entirely.

As you can see, we have Doctson starting outside over Pierre Garcon which may surprise some. It is somewhat of a formality, as there is so much substitution and movement when it comes to the different formations that the Redskins deploy on offense. At the same time, however, the tea leaves aren’t projecting happy times for Pierre Garcon’s future in Washington; he’s due big money, and turns 30 years old before the season commences this year. None of this is a slight on Garcon’s talent or passion, but the NFL is a harsh business and the fact is that the Redskins have invested too heavily into Josh Doctson for him to be sitting on the bench.

DeSean Jackson will do what he always does; stretch the field from the outside and keep Safeties and Cornerbacks honest. Jamison Crowder will see more of the field from the Slot this year, and Rashad Ross and Ryan Grant seem likely to shore up the depth. Don’t count out the likelihood of one of the UDFAs brought in, such as Maurice Harris, to force their way on to the roster if they have an impressive preseason.

Running Backs

With the team saying farewell to Fullback Darrel Young after the 2015 season and electing to not replace anyone at that specific position, the Running Back meeting room shrinks from 4 to 3.

Matt Jones enters the season as the presumed starter, but UGA rookie Keith Marshall will be given every opportunity to supplant him and steal the starting job away from him. Marshall has a ridiculously high ceiling, and would have been Georgia’s starting Running Back over Todd Gurley if not for his knee injury that he suffered as a sophomore. He brings elite top-end speed to the position, and if he can regain confidence in his legs will shape up to be an absolute steal in the 7th round of the draft.

Chris Thompson did better than many people give him credit for last season, and he’ll remain firmly on the roster as the change of pace back and screen pass option.

Tight Ends

Jordan Reed is a superstar. There is no denying that. His talent is simply undeniable, and as long as he’s healthy he’s locked in as the Tight End who will see the most playing time.

The combination of Niles Paul and Vernon Davis will see their fair share of playing time as well, however, as they are especially useful in the Running Game now that there are no Fullbacks on the Redskins roster.

Quarterbacks

No surprises here whatsoever. Kirk Cousins is the starter, and Colt McCoy is the backup. The only unanswered question here is will Nate Sudfeld make the roster or the practice squad? We have him as the practice squad Quarterback this season; he’s simply too raw and needs too much development to carry on the 53 man roster.

Defensive Line

The departures of Terrance Knighton and Jason Hatcher will necessitate shifts on the Defensive Line. One of the most popular theories going into the 2016 draft was that the Redskins would select a new pure Defensive Tackle/Nose Tackle with one of their early picks, but that didn’t happen. Chris Baker was poised to be the starting DT/NT last year before the Redskins managed to sign Knighton as a Free Agent, and with no better option on the roster at present Baker is once again slotted in to that role.

Fifth round Rookie DE Matt Ioannidis checked in at 299lbs at his pro day, and Head Coach Jay Gruden signaled that they are likely to bulk him up and shift him to the interior of the Defensive Line.

Trent Murphy is bulking up to move inside to the DE spot from OLB, but will find it difficult to crack into a starting position there. Ricky Jean-Francois impressed Redskins coaches last year with his ability to play at different spots across the line, and Stephen Paea (who was not 100% for most of 2015) will step up and start in 2016 and surprise many with his talent.

Outside Linebackers

The combination of Ryan Kerrigan, Junior Galette and Preston Smith is a formidable one, indeed. Although the base 3-4 roster depicted here shows Preston Smith as the backup, do not be surprised to see Joe Barry implement schemes that has all three of these pass rushers sharing the field at the same time together.

We are predicting that the Redskins will carry a total of four pure OLBs on the roster, and given that the first three are locked in without a doubt, Houston Bates wins himself a spot on the team with the fourth spot in reward for his strong contributions last season.

Inside Linebackers

Will Compton and Mason Foster return as the starters after finishing the 2015 season in those positions. Perhaps surprisingly, we have Perry Riley Jr not on the final 53 man roster, as we believe he is likely to be released by the team to give the Redskins some salary cap breathing space in the wake up the Josh Norman signing.

Second round rookie Su’a Cravens finds himself listed as an ILB for the purposes of this exercise, as his true position is yet to reveal itself; the versatility he brings to the Redskins is both a gift and a curse in that regard. Cravens is likely to end up playing as somewhat of a Strong Safety/Inside Linebacker hybrid, and it’s entirely possible that he may end up being listed as a Safety accordingly.

2016 rookie Steven Davis joins 2015 rookie Martrell Spaight as players who are expected to contribute strongly on Special Teams this year and provide depth at the position.

Cornerbacks

Perhaps the most radically different looking unit on the roster, the Cornerbacks appear to be an absolute position of strength for the Redskins this season. The blockbuster signing of Josh Norman instantly transformed the Redskins secondary, and Bashaud Breeland continues to develop into a star in his own right.

The drafting of Kendall Fuller was heralded as a stellar piece of recruiting, as he was widely considered a first round talent who fell in the draft due to his knee injury he suffered in 2015. That surgery was performed by Redskins team doctor James Andrews, and it is expected that Fuller should be ready to return to action prior to training camp this year. Fuller can step right in and work as the Nickel/Slot corner, and if he does so is likely to see some balls thrown his direction with opposing Quarterbacks likely wanting to stay away from the Norman/Breeland combination.

Like they did in 2015, the Redskins are probably going to carry six Cornerbacks on the roster again, and Quinton Dunbar, Will Blackmon and Greg Toler round out those positions.

Safeties

By far the absolute hardest position to predict when it comes to what the final 53 man roster will look like. It is unlikely that the Redskins will carry more than four pure Safeties on the roster, especially when you consider that Su’a Cravens is likely to see some utilization at the position.

From the pool of available Safeties, DeAngelo Hall, Kyshoen Jarrett, Duke Ihenacho, David Bruton, and potentially Chris Culliver as well, there are no clearly obvious pure Free Safeties apart from Culliver, who would need to transition from Cornerback and likely take a pay cut to make the roster. We have that scenario eventuating for this exercise, but if Culliver is instead released, Bruton will make the final 53 in his place.

Like many parts of this defense, players are expected to be resilient and flexible when it comes to playing multiple spots with multiple responsibilities, and as such the true “Free” and “Strong” Safety nomenclature may be almost redundant on this team.

The other thing to consider with the Safeties is the uncertainty surrounding Kyshoen Jarrett’s health. The 2015 rookie impressed many with his play and his work ethic last season, but the shoulder injury he suffered in the week 17 game against Dallas appears to involve nerve damage, which puts huge question marks over his ability to return to 100% health in 2016. For now, we have him firmly on the final 53 man roster based on talent, but there is every possibility he sees himself on Injured Reserve this year.
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We have Duke Ihenacho once again on the final 53 man roster; prior to injuring himself early last year he was impressing Defensive Backs Coach Perry Fewell with his play, and if he can stay healthy seems likely to return to the team.
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